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It’s no secret that nursing is a popular and highly respected profession with excellent potential for job growth. The American Association of Colleges of Nursing (AACN) reported in April of 2022 that a “strong interest in nursing careers” was readily apparent based on increasing enrollment in entry-level programs. However, examining the job growth projections published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may lead us to wonder what the future may hold during the remainder of the decade.

Let’s Do the Numbers

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks every occupation you might think of, from airline pilots and postal workers to nurses and psychologists. While any statistic should be taken with at least a grain of salt due to the potential for error, miscalculation, bias, and other factors, we can generally feel confident in what the BLS says.

For the BLS grouping of nurse practitioners, midwives, and nurse anesthetists, job growth between 2021 and 2031 is projected to be 40 percent, “much faster than average.” In addition, they report, “About 30,200 openings for nurse anesthetists, nurse midwives, and nurse practitioners are projected each year, on average, over the decade. Many of those openings are expected to result from the need to replace workers who transfer to different occupations or exit the labor force, such as to retire.”

While we’re at it, let’s acknowledge the BLS median salary stats for this group of APRNs, which is $123,780 annually.

When it comes to the BLS statistics for registered nurses, it’s not quite the same, with job growth between 2021 and 2031 projected as six percent, which is deemed “as fast as average.” In terms of job numbers, the BLS reports, “About 203,200 openings for registered nurses are projected each year, on average, over the decade.” The median salary for RNs in 2021 was $77,600.

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For comparison, let’s look at what the BLS says about physicians and surgeons, which is worse still. Projected job growth for this group during the same period is expected to be three percent, “slower than average.” On the other hand, physician assistants fair much better at 28 percent job growth and a median salary of $121,530, not far from NPs in terms of money, yet significantly behind for jobs.

According to a survey by Incredible Health, 34 percent of nurses were planning to leave their current role in 2022, and 32 percent were planning to leave the profession entirely or retire.

What Story Do the Numbers Tell?

The data mentioned above can be interpreted in various ways concerning registered nurses.

On the one hand, we can point to disappointing projected job growth for RNs in the coming decade despite the constant talk of an ongoing nursing shortage. On the other hand, one might also hypothesize that since many nurses are leaving their roles or retiring, those jobs that need to be filled may not be counted as “job growth” since those positions already exist.

Many nurses are seeking alternative career paths away from the traditional acute care bedside, perhaps to a large extent due to the rigors of the COVID-19 pandemic. As some seek ambulatory positions or entrepreneurship, their old jobs will be up for grabs.

Notwithstanding the numbers, demand for nurses should stay relatively consistent (six percent job growth is “as fast as average,” after all). We can also consider that changes in the economy or the healthcare industry may cause shifts in the nursing labor market of the coming decade. We may also encounter enacting legislative initiatives and other policies to counteract the nursing shortage, which could positively impact employment opportunities for nurses.

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As for nurse practitioners, they are certainly in the ascendant and will likely stay there, especially as physicians abandon primary care and demand for NPs grows apace.

No Place for Fear

Nurses have always been, and always will be, in demand. As the very mitochondria of healthcare, the wheels of the system would grind to a halt in their absence.

For those who wish to remain in the profession in whatever capacity — be it acute care, research, case management, remote nursing, ambulatory care, or otherwise — there will assuredly be room at the inn for nurses seeking employment.

Creative approaches to one’s nursing career can yield interesting and unexpected opportunities (e.g., cruise nurse, a nurse script consultant for film and television). Still, those seeking something outside the box can find other unusual roles.

Nursing as a profession isn’t going anywhere, and nurses can rest assured that their skill, knowledge, expertise, and compassion will always have a place in a society that’s wholly dependent on them always being there whenever they’re needed.

Daily Nurse is thrilled to welcome Keith Carlson, “Nurse Keith,” a well-known nurse career coach and podcaster of The Nurse Keith Show as a guest columnist. Check back every other Thursday for Keith’s column. 

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